The Milwaukee Brewers (4-4) host the St. Louis Cardinals (4-2) Saturday at American Family Field for the third game of their four-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: 1-1
St. Louis evened the series Friday by crushing Milwaukee 10-1 and the Cardinals’ lineup beat up Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta early. Peralta surrendered 6 ER in just 3 IP on 7 H and 2 BB with 4 K. Cardinals 3B Nolan Arenado lead the way with a 2-for-3 game with 1 HR, 2 BB and 3 RBIs.
Cardinals at Brewers: Projected starters
LHP Steven Matz vs. RHP Adrian Houser
Matz (0-1, 21.00 ERA) took a loss in his season debut Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates 9-4. He allowed 7 ER on 9 H and 1 BB with 5 K in 3 IP.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 3.59 FIP with a .266 batting average (BA), .315 wOBA, .381 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 18.9 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 74 plate appearances (PA).
Houser (0-1, 4.91 ERA) lost at the Baltimore Orioles Monday 2-0 with 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 3 K.
- 2021 vs. Cardinals: 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA (25 IP, 1 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 5.0 K/9 over four starts.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 3.67 FIP with a .238 BA, .288 wOBA, .391 xSLG, 17.6 K% and 87.8 mph EV in 136 PA.
Cardinals at Brewers odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Cardinals +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+160) | Brewers +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
Cardinals at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 5, Brewers 2
Money line
BET the CARDINALS (+100) for 1 unit because there’s reverse line movement headed towards St. Louis, the Brewers struggle versus lefty pitching and April is Houser’s worst month.
Nearly 70% of the money is on the Brewers according to pregame.com, but they’ve gone from a -125 ML favorite on the opener down to the current number. It’s a red flag whenever the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper and my instinct is to get on the same side as the House.
The market’s preference of Milwaukee here makes sense because Houser pitched lights out versus St. Louis in 2021 and the Brew Crew are the reigning NL Central champions.
However, Milwaukee’s lineup can’t hit left-handed pitching. Since the beginning of last season, the Brewers are 26th in wRC+ and 24th in wOBA against lefty pitching, according to Fangraphs.
BET the CARDINALS (+100).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a “lean” towards the Cardinals -1.5 (+160) since it’s a chunk payout and six of the last seven Cardinals-Brewers meetings have been decided by more than 1 run.
But, Houser did pitch well versus St. Louis last season and Milwaukee’s lineup is above-average on paper so the Brew Crew can sneak in the backdoor for an RL cover.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-125) since the oddsmakers are trying to steer bettors away from the Over but heavily juicing the Under.
Nearly 90% of the money is on the Under while a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Over. Typically, the cash column of betting splits represents professional money so the UNDER 8.5 (-125) is the sharper bet. However, my favorite wager in this game is St. Louis’s ML.