The Atlanta Braves (5-5) and the San Diego Padres (5-5) finish off a four-game set at Petco Park on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta grabbed a 2-1 series lead with another 5-2 victory over San Diego Saturday. Braves SP Ian Anderson went 5 2/3 IP, allowing just 1 ER on 2 H and 1 BB with 7 K. Braves 1B Matt Olson was 3-for-4 with a solo home run and pushed his batting average (BA) up to .412.
Braves at Padres: Projected starters
RHP Bryce Elder vs. RHP Yu Darvish
Elder (1-0, 4.76 ERA) earned a win in Atlanta’s 16-4 beatdown of the Washington Nationals Tuesday. He threw 5 2/3 IP, allowing 3 ER on 6 H with 0 BB and 4 K. This is Elder’s first season in the MLB.
Darvish (0-1, 10.57 ERA) got shelled his last time out in San Diego’s 13-2 loss at the San Francisco Giants Tuesday, surrendering 9 ER in just 1 2/3 IP on 8 H and 2 BB with 2 K. Darvish’s form was the polar opposite Opening Day when he held the Arizona Diamondback hitless over 6 IP April 7.
- 2021 vs. Braves: Loss, 2-1, on 5 2/3 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K July 20.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 2.24 FIP with a .159 BA, .231 wOBA, .277 expected slugging percentage, 30.4 K% and 81.4 mph exit velocity in 92 plate appearances.
Braves at Padres odds, spread and lines
- Money line (ML): Braves +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-190) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
Braves at Padres prediction and picks
Prediction
Braves 4, Padres 3
Money line
BET the BRAVES (+110) because they have been better in the three most important phases of the game. Atlanta has a higher WAR than San Diego in both starting and relief pitching and hitting, according to FanGraphs.
There’s also reverse line movement headed in Atlanta’s direction. The Braves opened at +125 ML underdogs have been lowered down to the current price even though more than three-fourths of the action is on the Padres, per Pregame.com.
It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper, especially with Darvish on the mound because most casual baseball fans view Darvish as a “top of the rotation” starter.
However, aside from Darvish’s brilliant Opening Day performance, he’s been terrible since the MLB enacted the sticky substance policy June 21, 2021. From there on out last season, Darvish was 1-9 with a 6.25 ERA and got pummeled by San Francisco earlier this week.
BET the BRAVES (+110).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Braves +1.5 (-190) is a little out of my price range and I am not going to chase the value of Atlanta’s alternate RL with the rookie hurler on the mound.
For what it’s worth, Atlanta is 31-13 RL as a road underdog since the beginning of last season and San Diego 32-37 RL as a home favorite.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-125), if at all, because the oddsmakers are trying to entice more pro-Over money but heavily juicing the Under.
This is a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the betting market because more money is on the Under but more bets have been placed on the Over.
Typically, you want to follow the money since the professionals put up more dough than the average Joe so the cash column is considered the sharp side.
However, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-125) because I’m not high on either starter and there’s a ton of firepower in both lineups.