Love them or hate them, advanced metrics like wins above replacement (WAR) are here to stay in today's MLB conversation.
The start of each new MLB season brings with it a wave of forward-looking content, but rather than picking the award winners or postseason matchups, we've decided to lean into analytics by predicting who will lead each team in WAR during the 2022 season.
For a team like the Washington Nationals, the choice was easy (Juan Soto), but most clubs had at least a handful of viable options.
There will always be the unexpected breakout that throws a wrench into things—Mike Yastrzemski in 2020 or Cedric Mullins in 2021—but what follows is our best guess at each MLB team's WAR leader in 2022.
AL East
Baltimore Orioles: CF Cedric Mullins
Mullins was a 5.7-WAR player last season during a breakout year when he became the first 30-homer, 30-steal player in Orioles history. Even with some regression, the 27-year-old still has a great chance of being the team's most valuable player, especially if top prospect Adley Rutschman spends part of the year in the minors.
Boston Red Sox: 3B Rafael Devers
Still only 25 years old, Devers has already developed into one of the game's elite offensive players, coming off a year in which he posted a 131 OPS+ with 38 home runs and 113 RBI in a 3.5-WAR season. Enrique Hernandez (4.9 WAR), Xander Bogaerts (4.9 WAR) and Nathan Eovaldi (4.5 WAR) all bested him in WAR a year ago, but he's still capable of another step forward, even if he's a below-average defender at the hot corner.
New York Yankees: RHP Gerrit Cole
Both in terms of on-field value and importance to the roster, Cole tops the list for a Yankees team still sorting out the starting rotation behind him. The $324 million man went 16-8 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 243 strikeouts in 181.1 innings while racking up 5.7 WAR last year to finish second in AL Cy Young voting, and the Yankees are banking on more of the same.
Tampa Bay Rays: SS Wander Franco
It took Franco just 70 games to tally 3.5 WAR last year, which was good for the fifth-highest total on a Rays team that won 100 games. The 21-year-old looks the part of a future superstar, and he's already off to an 11-for-20 start at the plate this year. A 5-WAR showing might be his floor in his first full season in the big leagues.
Toronto Blue Jays: SS Bo Bichette
Even with an MLB-leading 24 errors last season, Bichette was still a 5.9-WAR player. He spent time in the offseason working on his glove with Troy Tulowitzki, and if he can take a step forward in that area, there is no reason he can't be one of the game's elite players after posting a 120 OPS+ with 30 doubles, 29 home runs, 102 RBI, 121 runs, 25 steals and an AL-leading 191 hits.