After their original meeting was postponed Thursday due to rain, the Seattle Mariners play the Minnesota Twins for their opening games Friday. First pitch at Target Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle beat Minnesota 4-2 in last season’s series. The Mariners outscored the Twins 30-29 and won two of three games in both the home and away series.
The Mariners were a surprising story in 2021, finishing with a 90-72 record and two games back of the two American League wild-card seeds.
Conversely, the Twins had a down year last season with a 73-89 record after winning back-to-back AL Central crowns in 2019 and 2020.
Mariners at Twins: Projected starters
LHP Robbie Ray vs. RHP Joe Ryan
Ray is Seattle’s starter for their opener. He won the 2021 American League Cy Young behind a 13-7 record with an AL-leading 2.84 ERA (193 1/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 32 starts.
- 2021 vs. Twins: 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 6 K and 4 BB in one start.
- vs. Twins on the current roster: 3.96 FIP with a .194 batting average (BA), .308 wOBA, .410 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 34.1 K% and 90.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 44 plate appearances (PA).
Ryan takes the hill for Minnesota’s home opener. He made his MLB debut Sept. 1 and finished 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 0.79 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in five starts.
- Ryan is Minnesota’s sixth-ranked prospect and MLB.com’s 97th-ranked prospect.
- vs. Mariners on the current roster: Never pitched against Seattle
Mariners at Twins odds, spread and lines
- Money line (ML): Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Twins -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+165) | Twins +1.5 (-205)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
Mariners at Twins prediction and picks
Prediction
Mariners 6, Twins 3
Money line
BET the MARINERS (+100) because their lineup versus Minnesota’s is a wash but Seattle has a far better starter on the mound and a much more reliable bullpen.
Seattle’s bullpen was top five last season in FIP, home runs per 9 innings allowed (HR/9) and WAR, whereas Minnesota’s bullpen was 20th or worse in WAR, HR/9 and FIP. The Twins relievers were also dead-last in both hard-hit rate and EV as a unit.
Furthermore, the Twins were just 20-36 overall versus left-handed starters and 29-49 against teams with a winning record.
BET the MARINERS (+100).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Mariners -1.5 (+165) since I like them to win this game outright and Seattle should cover the RL if so.
However, I’m noticing Minnesota’s ML has been hit by sharp money so making an additional bet on the Mariners might be foolhardy.
Minnesota’s disastrous 2021 could be a blip with the Twins winning the divisions the two years prior and making some big moves this offseason including signing coveted free agent SS Carlos Correa.
I want to see what the Twins look like before I’m laying -1.5 against them in Minnesota.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-130) because this total feels shockingly low considering all the firepower in both lineups and the Twins played in the most Overs in the AL last season.
A vast majority of the market is also surprisingly on the Under according to pregame.com and vegasinsider.com, which is mostly due to the defending AL Cy Young taking the hill for Seattle.