The Houston Astros meet American League West rival Los Angeles Angels on Opening Day Thursday at Angel Stadium with the first pitch set for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Houston won the season series last season 13-6, more than doubling the Angels in runs scored 117-58.
The Astros won the AL West last season with a 95-67 and lost the World Series 4-2 to the Atlanta Braves.
The Angels had yet another disappointing season in 2021, finishing 77-85, 18 games behind the Astros and going Under their projected season win total for a fourth consecutive year.
Astros at Angels: Projected starters
LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Shohei Ohtani
Valdez is on the mound Opening Day for Houston after going 11-6 in 2021 with a 3.14 ERA (134 2/3 IP, 47 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 22 starts.
- 2021 vs. Angels: 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 12 H, 12 K and 8 BB in 2 starts.
- vs. Angels on the current roster: 4.67 FIP with a .290 batting average (BA), .348 wOBA, .443 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 16.8 K% and 88.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 113 plate appearances (PA).
Ohtani is making his first Opening Day start. He won the 2021 AL MVP as L.A.’s best starter while hitting the third-most home runs in the league (46). Ohtani was 9-2 in 23 starts last season with a 3.18 ERA (130 1/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.
- 2021 vs. Astros: 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 13 H, 11 K and 1 BB in 2 starts.
- vs. Astros on the current roster: 2.95 FIP with a .283 BA, .326 wOBA, .343 xSLG, 24.1 K% and 85.1 mph EV in 58 PA.
Astros at Angels odds, spread and lines
- Money line (ML): Astros +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Angels -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-200) | Angels -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
Astros at Angels prediction and picks
Prediction
Astros 6, Angels 3
Money line
GIMME the ASTROS (+102) as a fade against the Angels (-125) as a favorite and since the presumed sharp side of the market is backing Houston.
According to Pregame.com, roughly 60% of the cash is on the Astros but a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Angels. Typically, in sports betting, it’s profitable to follow the money when it’s counter to the public because sharps wager more money than your average Joe.
It feels like most casual bettors will take L.A. here since it’s at full strength and Ohtani is on the mound. However, the Angels snapped an 8-year Opening Day losing streak in 2021 so it’s typically profitable fading L.A. early on.
Furthermore, L.A.’s lineup struggled last season even when Mike Trout was healthy. Trout’s final game of 2021 was May 17 and up until then the Angels batters ranked 23rd in WAR, 27th in both hard-hit rate and EV. On the other hand, Houston’s lineup has been the best in the AL in recent seasons.
BET ASTROS (+102).
Run line/Against the spread
SPRINKLE on the ASTROS -1.5 (+165) ALTERNATE RL because Houston won by at least 2 runs in 12 of its 13 victories over L.A. last season and this payout is chunky enough to throw some change at.
Over/Under
PASS with a “lean” to the Over 8.5 (-130) because of all the firepower in both dugouts and it’s going to be a hot night in Anaheim so the ball could jump. But, a vast majority of the market is betting the Over as well and I don’t like following the herd in sports betting.