Keep reading to find betting insights and statistics to help place a wager on the Blue Devils’ ( to win on the moneyline) matchup against the Razorbacks ().
Betting Analysis
By Ryan Minion
Is it Coach K’s final game or a trip to the Final Four? Standing in Duke’s way is the fourth-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks, who are coming off an extremely impressive upset win in the Sweet 16 over the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga.
When Duke has possession, it will look to feed the ball inside to their talented frontcourt, led by potential NBA Draft No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero. According to ShotQuality, Duke’s offense has an adjOFF SQ rating of 1.23, which ranks 11th in the entire country. In short, the Blue Devils are one of the best teams in the country at finding efficient shot-making opportunities, which could prove vital against Eric Mussellman’s Razorback defense. That unit ranks seventh in preventing those efficient shots. Despite Duke’s solid transition offense, that may be challenging against an Arkansas defense that’s SQ PPP value of 0.93 ranks ninth in the nation.
When Arkansas has the ball, look for JD Notae to push the tempo and attack the basket in an attempt to draw fouls on Duke’s talented bigs. Moreover, the Razorbacks also rank in the top 20 in free throw rate, which could prove essential if Arkansas is to upset Coach K’s Blue Devils and advance to the Final Four for the first time since 1995.
Duke Offense Vs. Arkansas Defense
| Duke Offense | Stats (Rank) | Arkansas Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 80.2 (8) | Points/Gm | 68 (139) |
| 67.5 (202) | Possessions/Game | 71.2 (286) |
| 49.2 (4) | Field Goal % | 40.9 (45) |
| 37 (30) | 3PT % | 32.4 (123) |
| 55.9 (13) | Effective FG % | 47.2 (64) |
| 59 (13) | True Shooting % | 51.6 (132) |
Arkansas Offense Vs. Duke Defense
| Arkansas Offense | Stats (Rank) | Duke Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 76.1 (49) | Points/Gm | 67.4 (125) |
| 71.6 (56) | Possessions/Game | 67.7 (123) |
| 43.4 (216) | Field Goal % | 41.7 (91) |
| 30.4 (322) | 3PT % | 31.9 (85) |
| 48.6 (268) | Effective FG % | 47 (58) |
| 53.9 (167) | True Shooting % | 49.2 (25) |
Duke Betting Insights
- Duke has compiled a 22-15-0 ATS record so far this year.
- The Blue Devils have covered the spread 18 times this season (18-14 ATS) when playing as at least 4-point favorites.
- A total of 21 out of Duke’s 37 games this season have gone over the point total.
- Duke and its opponents have gone over 147.5 combined points in 18 of 37 games this season.
- The Blue Devils have had an average of 145.3 points in their games this season, 2.2 fewer than this matchup’s total.
Arkansas Betting Insights
- Arkansas is 21-15-0 ATS this year.
- When playing as at least 4-point underdogs this year, the Razorbacks have an ATS record of 4-1.
- Arkansas’ games have gone over the point total 21 out of 36 times this season.
- Arkansas’ games this season have had a combined scoring total higher than 147.5 points in 17 of 36 outings.
- The average over/under for Razorbacks outings this season is 144.9, 2.6 fewer points than this game’s total.
Duke Key Players
- Paolo Banchero leads the Blue Devils in scoring (17.2 points per game) and rebounding (7.8 rebounds per game).
- The squad is led in assists by Wendell Moore’s 4.5 per game.
- AJ Griffin is the top three-point shooter for the Blue Devils, connecting on 1.9 per game.
- Duke’s blocks leader is Mark Williams, who averages 2.9 per game. Moore leads the team averaging 1.4 steals a game.
Arkansas Key Players
- The Razorbacks go-to guy, JD Notae, leads the team in both scoring (18.6 points per game) and assists (3.7 assists per game).
- Jaylin Williams’ 9.9 rebounds per game paces Arkansas’ rebounding effort. He also adds 10.7 points per game.
- Notae leads the Razorbacks in shooting from beyond the arc, averaging 2.1 made threes per game.
- Notae tops Arkansas in steals with 2.3 per game, and Jaylin Williams leads the squad in blocks with 1.1 per game.