The trade deadline has passed and we now have a much clearer picture of what each team will look like come playoff time. That makes it the perfect time to assess the state of the Stanley Cup race. 

Taking stock in each team’s odds post-deadline is an exercise I do every year. It’s a natural point to reflect on how each team has played, what they’ve added to address holes, and most importantly: where they stand relative to the field. The deadline is all about creating the best possible version of a team and it’s important to evaluate the jobs each team did through that lens.

This year, nearly every team that fancies itself a contender made at least some move of consequence — whether that was finding the best player, the right player, or the magical combination that checked both boxes. With almost every team making a splash, the deadline arms race was more about keeping up rather than getting ahead. 

It remains to be seen which moves will pan out best, or which moves flame out. But as it stands, here’s how the Stanley Cup field looks — separated into five categories. 

Data as of March 21

Teams with playoff chances under 15 percent were not included.

Projected goalie values were based on the starter playing every game unless there was uncertainty over who the starting goalie would be.

The Favorite

The best chance to win it all: 15 percent or higher

Colorado

The rich get richer. Artturi Lehkonen gives the middle-six some extra punch. Nico Sturm gives the bottom-six size. Andrew Cogliano adds some depth. And Josh Manson feels like a perfect fit next to the smooth-skating, but undersized Samuel Girard. The Avalanche added a lot to their bottom line at the deadline and became even heavier Cup favorites as a result. In fact, they’re the only one in this category thanks to a mind-boggling Cup probability of 31 percent. That’s absurdly high.

There are a few reasons why it’s so high. The first is that the playoff path as the West is much weaker than the East, with a high chance of facing a minnow in the opening round (but also a non-insignificant chance of facing a healthy Vegas team if it makes the playoffs). But more importantly, Colorado is just better than everyone else. By a lot. It’s the Avalanche and then the rest, with a massive gap in expected win percentage between them and the next best team.

The Avalanche have the best top line and the best top pair. They have an elite center manning a second line that features two top-line caliber wingers. They have a top-pairing defender on the second pair and potentially a fourth one on the third pair if Bowen Byram indeed comes back. They have a decent bottom-six. Perhaps most importantly, they have an elite goalie in Darcy Kuemper.