The Milwaukee Bucks (42-26) travel to Salt Lake City Monday to play the Utah Jazz (42-25). Tip-off at the Vivint Smart Home Arena is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Jazz odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Milwaukee had its 6-game winning streak — 5-1 against the spread (ATS) — snapped Saturday with a 122-109 loss at the Golden State Warriors as 2.5-point road favorites.
Utah has alternated between winning and losing over its past seven games (1-5-1 ATS) with the latest being a 134-125 victory versus the Sacramento Kings, pushing as 9-point home favorites.
The Jazz beat the Bucks 105-97 in Milwaukee Oct. 31 as 4.5-point road favorites but the Bucks were without SF Khris Middleton and PG Jrue Holiday.
Utah is 6-1 straight up (SU) and ATS in the last seven meetings with Milwaukee.
- Money line (ML): Bucks -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Jazz +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread: Bucks -2.5 (-108) | Jazz +2.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Bucks at Jazz key injuries
Bucks
- SG Pat Connaughton (finger) out
Jazz
- C Rudy Gobert (foot) questionable
- PG Trent Forest (wrist) questionable
Bucks at Jazz odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Jazz 122, Bucks 116
Money line
LEAN JAZZ (+110) because I don’t think Utah will win if Gobert misses Monday’s game. Also, I prefer the Jazz plus the points but there isn’t much difference between Utah’s spread and ML.
However, since the beginning of 2019, Utah is 4-1 SU as home underdogs with a plus-5.8 margin of victory. It’s remarkable the Jazz have only been home underdogs five times over the past four seasons which indicates how tough it is to play in Utah.
Also, the Jazz play better against quality competition. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Utah has a plus-1.6 adjusted net rating (ranked fourth) versus teams in the top-10 of net efficiency. While Milwaukee has a minus-4.8 adjusted net rating (ranked 15th) and the worst ATS margin (minus-7.5) versus top-10 teams.
Furthermore, Utah matches up well with Milwaukee, stylistically, because the Jazz have the best effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and highest 3-point attempt rate whereas the Bucks allow the most 3-point attempts per game.
That said, I prefer Utah plus the points, especially with Gobert’s questionable game status, but LEAN JAZZ (+110).