At some point — hopefully soon — MLB and the MLB Players Association will finalize a new collective bargaining agreement, and baseball will return. I don't know when it will happen but I can assure you it will happen. Major League Baseball will not cease to exist. Here's our timeline of the lockout proceedings.
Whenever baseball does return, front offices will have to scramble to finish up their offseason business, which will happen during a truncated spring training. Beyond trades and free agency, teams have to sign their pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players, and also get up to speed with any injured players, who they weren't allowed to contact during the lockout.
Spring training is typically when teams lock up their own players to long-term extensions. In a normal offseason, teams focus on outside additions during the winter months before turning their attention to their own players in the spring. This year is unlike any other, though I suspect extensions will still be a spring priority. Teams still want to keep their best players, you know?
R.J. Anderson looked at seven young players who could sign a long-term deal soon after the Rays gave Wander Franco a record 11-year extension worth $182 million extension in November. We're going to highlight players who are set to hit free agency next offseason, meaning there's real urgency to get a deal done and soon. Once a player hits the open market, all bets are off.
Three such players signed extensions prior to the lockout: Blue Jays righty José Berríos (seven years, $131 million), Twins center fielder Byron Buxton (seven years, $100 million), and Rockies catcher Elias Díaz (three years, $14.5 million). All three would have become free agents after the 2022 season, but instead signed an extension to remain with their team.
It's important to note that, historically, players who sign extensions one year away from free agency receive free-agent contracts. There's no discount like when the player signs several years prior to free agency. Just look at the Berríos and Buxton extensions. Those look like free-agent contracts, no? There's no discount. That's an open-market deal.
Obviously some impending free agents are more likely to sign extensions than others. I'm sure the Dodgers would love to lock up Trea Turner, but after this offseason's shortstop bonanza, I'm guessing Turner and his agent are curious to see what the open market offers next offseason, when he will be by far the best available shortstop. In Turner's case, playing out 2022 makes sense.
Here are seven free agents-to-be we see as candidates to sign an extension at some point before hitting free agency. Players often set an Opening Day deadline for contract talks, though I suspect the lockout and short spring will create a little more flexibility. The seven players are ranked in order of how likely we think it is they will forego free agency and sign an extension.
1. José Abreu, White Sox
Abreu is the heart and soul of a White Sox team that is firmly in the middle of its championship window. He turned 35 in January and Chicago has a ready-made first base replacement in Andrew Vaughn, though Abreu is still so productive and so important to the team in the clubhouse that I have a hard time believing the White Sox will let him go. He is the unofficial captain.
"A World Series title is going to be there, but we need to keep working and keep working hard," Abreu told reporters, including Maddie Lee of NBC Sports Chicago, following the team's ALDS exit last year. "… Just enjoying this moment and very glad to be here."
Abreu will earn $18 million in 2022, though $4 million of that is deferred. At his age — he will be 36 in Year 1 of his next contract — Abreu is likely looking at a series of one-year contracts the rest of his career, or maybe a lower base salary two-year contract. Either way, I have to think Abreu winds up back in Chicago in 2023. An extension makes too much sense for everyone.
Possible contract: The Twins gave Nelson Cruz one year and $14 million with a $12 million club option for a second year when he was entering his age-38 season. Cruz was more consistently excellent than Abreu — Cruz had a 145 OPS+ in the four years leading into that contract and Abreu has a 126 OPS+ his last four years — but also two years older. Guarantee the second year and call it two years and $26 million? Maybe bump it to $30 million and they have a deal?