Last week, we learned that David Ortiz made it into the Baseball Hall of Fame via the BBWAA ballot on his first try. Another first-time candidate had career numbers that dwarf those of Big Papi, but didn't even get half as many votes. That would be Alex Rodriguez. I've already covered why A-Rod's candidacy seems very complicated to me, though maybe a good number of people disagree. 

A-Rod got just 34.3 percent of the vote in his first try. In assessing his chances of enshrinement in the future, I'd say those chances are very slim. Let's examine why.

He'll have up to nine more tries on the BBWAA ballot. We've seen players start lower than this and make the Hall of Fame before, even very recently. Larry Walker started at 20.3 percent and made it on his 10th ballot. In similar territory to A-Rod, Edgar Martinez started at 36.2 percent. He even dipped down to 25.2 percent by his fifth ballot, yet made it on his 10th. 

A-Rod, of course, is different. As noted at length in the article on his complicated candidacy, he served a suspension for violating the MLB Joint Drug Agreement, meaning he used performance-enhancing drugs. 

With this as the jumping-off point, Manny Ramirez is the closest case. He failed drug tests and was suspended two different times. He's one of the most prolific hitters in history. He debuted at just 23.8 percent of the vote. In his fourth year, he jumped from 22.8 percent to 28.2 percent, but he's stagnated. His last three years have gone 28.2 percent to 28.2 percent to 28.8.