I have been fairly pessimistic about spring training, and possibly the regular season, starting on time. This has been my gut since the beginning of the lockout, even as folks in the know insisted there was plenty of time to strike a deal and that no games would be lost because both sides recognized how destructive that would be. Translation: both sides would begin losing money.

My gloom, though, has been based on the last time MLB and the players had to work out a deal to return to play. That was 2020 amid the first wave of COVID-19 and after the sport was shut down that March.

The sides never had more reason to work together. They had a common enemy — a virus sweeping the planet — to bond over and fight against. They had the ability to get back on the field before any other sport, which promised strong viewership with everyone trapped in their homes. But there also would have been the praise in showing the country that — with protocols — there were ways to get back to work. They could have done it in time to begin the regular season on the July 4 weekend, which would have enabled the American pastime to wrap itself in the flag.

But the mistrust and dislike was too thick despite all the motivations to find common ground (and common good for the game). July 4 was missed and a deal came only when the alternative was not to play any season at all in 2020. So forgive me if I don’t see the kumbaya moment breaking out any time soon. MLB made a contract offer Thursday that the players felt was disappointing.

An optimist would say neither side is really going to show its best offers until a drop-dead date, and there will be a lot of rhetoric until then. But a drop-dead date is in the eye of the beholder (I think Casey Stengel said that first). Spring training camps are scheduled to open Feb. 16, the first spring games are Feb. 26, and the regular season opener is March 31.

One thing on which management and players agree is that the 23-day hurried Spring Training II in July 2020 was too short, especially to get pitchers’ arms ready. So let’s say March 1 — which would allow a month of spring training — if not the date camps must open, is pretty close to it. But it is not as if the sides can agree on Feb. 28 and everyone will show up the next day. That will take a minimum of a week. That makes roughly Feb. 22 as the date by which a settlement would be needed to at least keep the regular-season opening on its scheduled date and to play a full 162 games.

Now, think of what the industry will face even upon a settlement. Every organization has been working during the lockout to remove issues that can be addressed. So, for example, all the firing and hiring of personnel up and down the system, focusing on this past Saturday’s international signing date, putting more resources into readying for the draft and working on analytic and scientific projects that have to get tabled when so much else is ongoing.