What will the Bills’ WR rotation look like and might Greg Rousseau be a healthy scratch?

The Athletic

After the Bills earned a critical victory in New England, they return home for the final two games of the regular season and a prime opportunity to win the AFC East. Their path is simple.

If they win their last two games, they’ll win the division and guarantee themselves at least one home game to begin the postseason. With a win and some help, the Bills can clinch a postseason berth for the third straight year and their fourth appearance in the last five seasons.

A win and either a Ravens loss, or losses by both the Chargers and Raiders, will assure the Bills their playoff ticket. It all begins with a game against the 7-8 Atlanta Falcons, a slightly puzzling team that is only a game out of an NFC playoff spot despite some lopsided losses.

What might Sunday look like at several positions? Here are five thoughts as the Bills prepare for the Falcons.

1. A prime opportunity for the Bills’ passing offense to keep it going

Over the last three games, Josh Allen and the Bills’ passing offense have been on an outright heater. They’ve scored nearly nine points per quarter over their last 10, they have punted minimally and have moved the ball almost every time they’ve gotten possession. Allen has been good all season, but he has been magnificent over his last three games, even while fighting through a foot sprain. They’ve also done this against three defenses (Tampa Bay, Carolina and New England) that rank in the NFL’s top 8 of defensive expected points added (EPA) and in defensive throw EPA, according to TruMedia.

It’s even more impressive if you consider the Bills rank second in defensive EPA and first in defensive throw EPA and can’t play themselves. They were effectively up against three of the seven most formidable pass defenses they could see and had some of their most prolific showings of the season.

That brings us to the Falcons, who, despite a 7-8 record, have some of the worst metrics in the league. The Falcons rank 26th in defensive throw EPA, and when you watch them on film, you see why teams are having so much success. While they have a good enough run defense at times, the Falcons’ pass rush is one of the worst in the league. Their pass rushers aren’t getting into the pocket consistently enough, and they depend on Dante Fowler Jr. to win on passing downs to help. Teams usually can thwart Fowler with a one-on-one matchup, and Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins should handle the matchup.

It winds up putting a lot of pressure on the Falcons’ secondary, which doesn’t have much beyond the very underrated cornerback A.J. Terrell. The Falcons also might be without starting cornerback Fabian Moreau, which gives the Bills even more of an advantage. Regardless of coverage, Allen and the Bills should have enough time to throw and have another prolific scoring day — even if Allen and the Bills don’t get to the 300-yard mark.


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