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Broncos vs Vikings 2019 NFL Week 11 Spread & Expert Analysis

The Minnesota Vikings have been dominant at home this season in their four wins, and the Vikings are one of the biggest Week 11 NFL betting favorites at Mybookie as they host the offensively struggling Denver Broncos, who come off their bye week.

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Broncos vs Vikings Last Meeting

Clubs haven’t met since 2015, which was Peyton Manning’s last season with the Broncos and the season they won the Super Bowl. Denver beat Minnesota 23-20 in Week 4 that year. Brandon McManus’s 39-yard field goal with 1:51 left broke a 20-20 tie. Ronnie Hillman had a 72-yard TD run for the Broncos and they had seven sacks.

Denver’s top-ranked defense limited Adrian Peterson to 81 yards on 16 carries. Peterson did get a 48-yard touchdown run on fourth-and-inches to pull Minnesota to 20-17 with 10 minutes left. The Vikings picked off Manning twice and turned the takeaways into 10 points.

The all-time series is tied at 7-7, but Minnesota has lost three in a row. The last win for Minnesota in the series? Oct. 19, 2003, at the Metrodome.

Why Bet on Denver?

The Broncos come off their bye having ended a two-game losing streak with a 24-19 home win over Cleveland in Week 9. That was the first NFL start for Denver QB Brandon Allen. He completed 12-of-20 passes for 193 yards and two touchdowns. The 27-year-old journeyman gave Courtland Sutton (5/56/1) and Noah Fant (3/115/1) more than enough opportunities to make plays, most notably hitting Sutton with a 21-yard money-ball on Denver’s second drive to put the Broncos up 7-0 early. He was also helped by Fant after the catch on a shallow crossing route that went for a 75-yard score.

Phillip Lindsay rushed nine times for 92 yards and one score in the upset. A total of 70 of Lindsay’s 92 total yards occurred on two carries, one being the second-year pro’s 30-yard touchdown dash up the gut in the third quarter.

Dilema Under Center

Rookie second-round QB Drew Lock (thumb) will return to practice from injured reserve this week but it’s thought that Allen will start. Overall this preseason, Lock posted a 60.8 completion rate with a pedestrian average of five yards per attempt to go along with one touchdown and one interception on 51 pass attempts.

Allen’s fate with Denver for next season may depend on the next five games, a stretch that includes four road tests and three teams currently in the league’s top 10 in scoring defense. Previous starting QB Joe Flacco is done for the season. Head coach Vic Fangio said another week of practice should do “wonders” for Allen’s game.

Through nine games, the Broncos’ defense looks as advertised. The team ranks fourth in total defense, fourth in passing defense, tied for sixth in scoring defense and second in red-zone defense. Von Miller must record six sacks in the final seven games to continue his stretch of double-digit sack seasons.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Points per Game: 16.56
  • Passing Yards: 199.56
  • Rushing Yards: 111.89
  • Yards per Play: 5.15
Defense
  • Points per Game: 18.89
  • Passing Yards: 202.11
  • Rushing Yards: 107.56
  • Yards per Play: 5.02

Why Bet on Minnesota?

The Vikings were 28-24 upset winners in Dallas last Sunday night. Kirk Cousins completed 23-of-32 passes for 220 yards and two touchdowns. Cousins came out firing, throwing a pair of touchdowns to Kyle Rudolph on the first two drives. He managed the game in the second half, checking down to Dalvin Cook, who ended up leading the team in receiving. Cousins has rebounded after a slow start, throwing 13 touchdowns over his last five games.

Kirk was especially effective on third downs, as he completed 7 of 9 passes for 80 yards and a touchdown. Cousins has completed 197 of 285 passes (69.1 percent) for 2,437 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions through 10 games. His passer rating of 112.0 ranks third in the NFL.

Cook had 26 carries for 97 yards and a touchdown. The NFL rushing leader was the Vikings’ entire offense, also leading the team with seven catches for 86 yards. He’s quietly having an MVP-type season, leading the league with 991 yards and scoring a touchdown in all but two games. Minnesota is averaging 153.0 rushing yards per game, which is third-best in the NFL behind Baltimore (197.2) and San Francisco (161.8).

What about the defense?

Minnesota’s defense has allowed more yards by opponents this season than in recent history, currently ranking 13th with 333.1 yards against. The Vikings have been stouter against the run, allowing 91.2 yards on the ground (seventh) versus 241.9 yards through the air (18th).

The Vikings allowed a season-high 443 yards, including 397 (393 net) to Dak Prescott through the air last week. Dallas was also 9-of-15 on third downs, but it was the Vikings defense that came up clutch late by stopping Dallas on its final three third-down plays.

Vikings kicker Dan Bailey is just one point away from reaching the 1,000-point mark for his career. The eighth-year pro made two field goals and kicked two extra points against his former team in Dallas.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Points per Game: 26.20
  • Passing Yards: 231.30
  • Rushing Yards: 153.00
  • Yards per Play: 6.12
Defense
  • Points per Game: 18.20
  • Passing Yards: 241.90
  • Rushing Yards: 91.20
  • Yards per Play: 5.34

Broncos vs Vikings NFL Week 11 Betting Trends

  • Vikings are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home
  • Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in November
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games
  • Broncos are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the NFC conference
  • Broncos are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games against an opponent in the NFC North division
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver’s last 9 games on the road

Expert Final Score Prediction for Broncos vs Vikings

Denver Broncos 10 – Minnesota Vikings 24

 

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