Yair Rodriguez returns to Mexico City for the fist time in two years to take on tough Jeremy Stephens at the main event of UFC Fight Night Mexico City on Saturday, Sep. 21. Also on the main card is a great matchup between Carla Esparza and Alexa Grasso. Check out the UFC odds, analysis, and free picks for the 6 main card bouts!
UFC Fight Night 159 Odds, Rodriguez vs Stephens Betting Preview and Picks
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- When: Saturday, September 21 at 5:00pm PDT
- Where: Mexico City Arena, Mexico City, Mexico
- TV: ESPN+
- Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
Martin Bravo vs Steven Peterson
- UFC Fight Night 159 Odds: Martin Bravo -115 / Steven Peterson -115
A Fortis MMA fighter, Steven Peterson has every chance to take down Martin Bravo in this battle. Both lost to Alex Cacares in their last bouts. Peterson fell via unanimous decision. Cacares only out struck him by 8, though, 95-87. He can beat Bravo and get back on the winning track here.
UFC Betting Pick: Steven Peterson
Irene Aldana vs Vanessa Melo
- UFC Fight Night 159 Odds: Irene Aldana -500 / Vanessa Melo +350
Aldana is a great fighter. That’s why she’s the -500 favorite here. But, Vanessa Melo has a shot. She’s won 7 of her last 8 and has gone the distance in 8-of-10. That’s the key in this bout. If Melo can keep this one close and have it go to the scorecards, she might have a chance to pull off the major upset.
Aldana heads into this bout off a loss, which means even though Melo took this fight on short notice, she might have an edge. Vanessa has a chance. At the odds, she’s worth a few bucks.
UFC Betting Pick: Vanessa Melo
Brandon Moreno vs Askar Askarov
- UFC Fight Night 159 Odds: Brandon Moreno +155 / Askar Askarov -185
Brandon Moreno, although the ranked UFC veteran, should be up against it versus undefeated Askar Askarav. Askarav has an excellent ground game, 70% of his wins have come via submission, as well as a great stand up game. Moreno will find it difficult to keep this off the mat if Askarav wants to go there. Askar is a solid play to make it 11 in a row.
UFC Betting Pick: Askar Askarov
Carla Esparza vs Alexa Grasso
- UFC Fight Night 159 Odds: Carla Esparza +110 / Alexa Grasso -140
The co-main event should be a good one with two very talented fighters stepping into the Octagon. Esparza is the veteran. At 14-6, she’s won 53% of her wins via decision, 20% via KO, and 27% via submission.
Grasso has a slight edge, though. She won her last bout, has a great standup game, and has a 4-inch height advantage. She also has a 3-inch reach advantage. Grasso figures to add a win to her 10-2 record.
UFC Betting Pick: Alexa Grasso
Yair Rodriguez vs Jeremy Stephens
- UFC Fight Night 159 Odds: Yair Rodriguez -118 / Jeremy Stephens -112
We should throw records out when handicapping Rodriguez-Stephens. Jeremy Stephens’ record is downright mediocre at 28-16. There’s a reason he’s ranked eighth in the division, though. Jeremy is a tough dude with a great standup game. Not only that, but he’s fought the best he could during his career.
Rodriguez should be favored. In his last, he fought Chan Sun Jung. Losing on the scorecards in the last round, Yair provided an upward elbow that knocked out Jun with literally a second left in the final round.
Although Yair should be favored, he’s up against it versus Stephens. Stephens figures to outwork Rodriguez in the standup while preventing the fight from going to the mat. Jeremy gets the call.
UFC Betting Pick: Jeremy Stephens