It’s a potential playoff preview Monday night as the Braves and Brewers open a series in Milwaukee – Atlanta’s only visit of the season. Then again, they could play there again come October with the Braves leading the NL East and the Brewers right there in the NL Central and Wild-Card races. Let’s take a look at the MLB odds while making some predictions.
Braves vs Brewers MLB Spread & Expert Pick
- When: Monday, 8:10 PM ET
- Where: Miller Park
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Max Fried/Adrian Houser
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: WFAW
- MLB Spread: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (Total 10)
Why Bet on Atlanta?
Atlanta has surged in going 26-10 over the last 36 games. They now lead the Washington Nationals by 7.0 games and the Philadelphia Phillies by 8.5 games in the NL East standings. The Braves swept three games in San Diego over the weekend. Atlanta has gone 9-0-1 in their last 10 series, dating to a three-game sweep at Miami, June 7-9.
Josh Donaldson has been a big reason for the Braves’ recent success. He homered three times in the first two games of the series in San Diego. He is also hitting .292/.433/.958 with five homers in his last seven games. Freddie Freeman hit a go-ahead, three-run home run in the eighth inning Sunday to lead the Braves to a 4-1 win over the Padres. The dinger was Freeman’s only hit on the day — and his only hit through the first series of the second half — giving him 24 homers, 71 RBI and 71 runs scored on the year. The 29-year-old is hitting .302/.387/.576 through 94 games.
Second baseman Ozzie Albies also is raking. Since May 16, the first game in which manager Brian Snitker hit Albies 8th in the lineup, the second baseman is hitting .326 with a .396 on-base percentage and a .930 OPS.
The Braves start lefty, Max Fried. Fried (9-4) surrendered five runs on 11 hits across five innings to take the loss on July 6 against the Marlins. He struck out seven and walked one. Fried was in pretty good shape until the fifth inning, when Miami tallied three runs on four hits. The 25-year-old has a 4.29 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 97:29 K:BB over 98.2 innings.
Fried may benefit from the three extra days of rest he received after totaling 98 2/3 innings during the season’s first half. He has never thrown more than 118 2/3 innings as a pro. Fried has a 6.17 ERA over his past eight starts.
- Runs: 5.39
- Hits: 9.09
- Walks: 3.59
- Strike Outs: 8.68
- Runs: 4.69
- Hits: 8.67
- Walks: 3.67
- Strike Outs: 8.60
Why Bet on Milwaukee?
The Brewers have dropped 4 of their last 5 and 7 of their last 9 games. The weekend marked the Brewers’ first series loss to the Giants at home since 2016. Milwaukee finished the regular season 2-4 against the Giants, marking their fifth time losing the season series against San Francisco in the past 6 years.
Christian Yelich went 2-for-4 with his major league-leading 32nd home run of the season in the Brewers’ loss to the Giants on Sunday. Yelich took Giants starter Tyler Beede deep with a game-tying blast to right-center field in the seventh inning. He also singled in the first inning to record his 34th multi-hit effort in 85 games this season. Yelich owns an unbelievable.330/.430/.708 triple-slash line with 68 runs scored, 68 RBI and 21 stolen bases in 379 plate appearances.
He has a realistic shot at a 50-homer, 30-steal campaign. Yelich has joined Ryan Braun (2009, 2011-12) as the only players in franchise history with multiple 30/20 seasons. It marks the sixth 30/20 season in team history. Tommy Harper (1970) has the other.
It’s Adrian Houser for the Brewers. Houser allowed five runs on seven hits with three walks and five strikeouts across four innings while taking a loss against the Pirates in his last start on July 6. The 26-year-old moved back into the rotation in late June, and the results of the decision haven’t been particularly good. In three starts since transitioning back to the rotation, Houser is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA. Overall, he is 2-3 with a 4.01 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts in 42.2 innings across 19 appearances — including five starts — this season.
Houser has a big arm and thrived in relief this season, posting a 1.05 ERA in 14 games. But he is 0-3 with an 8.47 ERA in five starts. The Brewers are sticking with him as a starter, for now, believing the talent is there to get straightened out.
- Runs: 4.76
- Hits: 8.51
- Walks: 3.76
- Strike Outs: 9.56
- Runs: 5.01
- Hits: 8.93
- Walks: 3.45
- Strike Outs: 9.33
Braves vs Brewers MLB Betting Trends
- Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Milwaukee
- Braves are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee
- Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter
- Braves are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games this season
- Brewers are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games against an opponent in the National League East division
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games this season
Expert Final Score Prediction for Braves vs Brewers
Atlanta Braves 4 – Milwaukee Brewers 5