Winning on a consistent basis in the MLB, where there are 162 games in the regular season, takes a pretty delicate balance. Teams can have an explosive offense, but if they don’t have a great pitching staff, they are going to get sucked into shootouts where they lose as often as they win. Similarly, a great starting rotation will only be able to take a team so far if the bats are not hot on a consistent basis. It is the teams who have found a nice balance between offense and defense that are likely to be the teams still standing once that long regular season finally comes to a close.
The Cincinnati Reds are getting that pitching and defense, but it’s not translating to wins because of their anemic offense. On the flip side, the Milwaukee Brewers are within reach of the NL Central lead because they have been good at getting that balance right. It’s no real surprise that the Brewers are in as a 1 ½ run favorite at home in the opening game of this series. The run total has been set at 9.
Reds vs Brewers MLB Odds & Pick for Tuesday Night
- When: Tuesday, May 21 at 7:40 PM EST
- Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee
- Starting Pitchers: Gray vs. Gonzalez
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Radio: The Big 1070
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- MLB Odds: Milwaukee Brewers -155 (Total 9)
Why bet on the Cincinnati Reds?
The Cincinnati Reds are something of an anomaly in that they are sitting dead last in the NL Central with a record of 21-26, yet they are sitting there with a positive (+24) run differential. The Reds have given up just 165 runs this season, which is far and away from the best defensive record in the National League, but with only 189 runs scored, they find themselves on the losing side of close games all too often.
They have lost all 3 games versus the Brewers this season, with each of those game decided by a single run. They are also just 9-15 SU on the road, which makes this trip top Milwaukee look that much tougher. As a road underdog, the Reds are a good bet at 13-7 ATS. They will start Sonny Gray (0-4, 4.30 ERA) in this one.
- Runs: 4.02
- Hits: 7.26
- Walks: 3.00
- Strike Outs: 8.83
- Runs: 3.51
- Hits: 7.53
- Walks: 3.26
- Strike Outs: 9.74
Why bet on the Milwaukee Brewers?
The NL Central is proving to be very competitive this year, with the Brewers right in the thick of the hunt for the division title. They held the top spot for a decent chunk of time, but they have since lost some ground to Chicago after the Cubs went on a bit of a tear. Heading into this series, Milwaukee are in second place, just one game out of the lead with a 28-21 record.
They have been a little up and down of late, going 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they have also been solid in their own ballpark, posting a 16-8 record in their first 24 games there. As a home favorite, the Brewers are 8-9 ATS. On Tuesday night, they will send Gio Gonzalez (2-0, 1.69 ERA) to the mound for this one.
- Runs: 4.88
- Hits: 8.49
- Walks: 3.98
- Strike Outs: 9.57
- Runs: 4.59
- Hits: 8.43
- Walks: 3.63
- Strike Outs: 9.12
Reds vs Brewers MLB Betting Trends
- Reds are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against Milwaukee
- The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cincinnati’s last 20 games on the road
- Brewers are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Milwaukee’s last 16 games this season
- Reds are 31-62 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons
- Brewers are 28-10 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons
- Gray is 0-0 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 1.333
- Gonzalez is 6-3 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP of 1.075
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction for Reds vs Brewers
The Brewers have certainly had the best of this match-up this season, winning all 3 meetings. While those previous 3 games were all close, I think that Milwaukee wins this one a little more comfortably. I really like the UNDER here.
Score: Cincinnati Reds 1 – Milwaukee Brewers 4