Every season, there are a handful of teams that we know are not going to be very good, either because they are in a rebuilding phase or because they have just been bad for more seasons than we care to remember. It is very often those teams that the good teams struggle against. It’s amazing how often a very good team faces a cellar dweller and has to work extra hard to get the job done. It’s either a case of them taking the opposition too lightly or perhaps that the poorer team simply raises their game a little when the big boys come knocking.
The Atlanta Braves and the Cincinnati Reds will close out a 3-game series on Thursday, and while this is a series that you would certainly have pegged the Braves to win, we head into this game after seeing a split in the opening two games. The Reds will have their ace on the mound for this one, which is why they are probably favored by 1 ½ in their own ballpark. The run total for this one has been set at 9.
Braves vs Reds MLB Spread & Game Analysis
- When: Thursday, April 25 at 6:40 PM EST
- Where: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
- Starting Pitchers: Teheran vs Castillo
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Radio: Reds Radio Network
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- MLB Spread: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (Total 9)
Why bet on the Atlanta Braves?
The Atlanta Braves saw a lot of their prospects hit it big at the same time last season, which was the main reason why they were able to go out and win the NL East. They are among the favorites to repeat this season, but the competition will be that much stiffer. It’s a bit of a dog eat dog situation going on in there right now, with the Braves sitting in third place at 12-11, but just a half game out of the lead.
It’s going to be interesting to see if one team can take things by the scruff and create some separation. For now, the Braves will simply be looking to win this series and move on, but at just 5-5 on the road, as well as in their last 10 games, there are no guarantees. Atlanta are 5-4 ATS as a road dog, and they will send Julio Teheran (2-2, 5.61 ERA) out to try and improve that mark.
- Runs: 5.35
- Hits: 9.00
- Walks: 4.65
- Strike Outs: 9.09
- Runs: 4.83
- Hits: 8.30
- Walks: 4.87
- Strike Outs: 9.09
Why bet on the Cincinnati Reds?
The Reds are exactly where we expected them to be, which is in the cellar of the NL Central, 5 ½ games off the pace at 9-14. While they have been brutal on the road, winning just 3 games, they have been a tougher out at home, although still just sitting with a .500 record.
If there is one thing that has been a little more predictable when these two meet, it’s that the OVER tends to hit, with 6 of the last 9 meetings in Cincinnati going that route. There was a lot of scoring in the opener in this series, but just 4 runs scored in game 2. We may see another defensive battle here, as Luis Castillo (2-1, 1.47 ERA) has been tough to hit this season.
- Runs: 3.48
- Hits: 6.43
- Walks: 2.83
- Strike Outs: 9.00
- Runs: 3.35
- Hits: 7.43
- Walks: 3.48
- Strike Outs: 9.65
Braves vs Reds MLB Betting Trends
- Atlanta is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the National League conference
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
- Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games this season
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati’s last 12 games at home
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction for Braves vs Reds
The Atlanta Braves have now covered the spread in each of their last 3 games, and while it may be tough to do so when facing Castillo, who has been light out for the Reds, that is the direction in which I am leaning with this one.
Score: Atlanta Braves 2 – Cincinnati Reds 3